Latin American private pension funds’ vulnerabilities

In the last years, we have been witnesses of significant large rates of return in most Latin-American private pension fund institutions (PPF). This outstanding performance of funds can be explained by an economic boom in the region. However, these funds have lately been hampered in some countries, something that contrasts with the successful performance of private pension funds’ returns. We measure management performance with the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) technique, and test a sample of eight countries in Latin America to determine if there is any vulnerability in the private pension funds. The results are relevant for policy makers and regulators of pension funds.Desde hace algunos años hemos sido testigos de un incremento significativo en el rendimiento del portafolio de las administradoras de fondos para el retiro (AFORE). Este notable desempeño de las AFORE se explicaría por un boom económico en la región. Sin embargo, la coyuntura actual ha provocado que los fondos de pensiones se deterioren, lo que contrasta con periodos de auge. En una muestra de ocho países de Latinoamérica utilizamos una medida de eficiencia gerencial, mediante la técnica de Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) para verificar si existe o no vulnerabilidad en los fondos de pensiones. Los resultados son relevantes para los diseñadores de política y los reguladores de las AFORE

La presión social en la eficiencia de los equipos de Fútbol

El presente estudio analiza las variables que explican el desempeño del equipo de fútbol de un país dentro de ciertas copas del mundo. Las variables se clasifican en tres grupos: macroeconómicas, demográficas y cultural-deportivas. Encontramos que tanto las variables macroeconómicas y demográficas no son significativas para explicar el rendimiento de una Nación, pero la que llamamos variable cultural-deportiva sí es una variable relevante para el estudio de eficiencia de un equipo de futbol.El resultado contrasta con estudios previos, los que no consideran la medición del rendimiento de cada participante con nuestra técnica. El ranking del equipo participante se evalúa mediante la técnica de Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA, por sus siglas en Inglés) para obtener las puntuaciones de eficiencia basadas en la idea de la maximización de puntos dados los intentos de anotar por tiros de esquina, fuera del área, y en el arco. Este estudio es relevante para evaluar el rendimiento en el fútbol como una función de variables de control social como ser anfitrión o afiliado a una federación

Energy prices and competitiveness in Latin American emerging economies

This paper presents an evaluation of the impact of international oil prices on the competitiveness of three emergent economies in Latin America. We use the methodology of input-output tables for: Peru, Chile and Colombia. Recent outstanding macroeconomic performance of these three emergent countries caused an increase in their demand for energy, which deepened their trade deficit of oil. The effects of high petroleum prices are divided into (a) the impact on costs of new energy prices and (b) the impact on competitiveness. The main conclusion is that energy inputs today constitute the most important cost for industries in Peru, Chile, and Colombia. We recommend some policies for energy efficiency that are consistent with the competitiveness of these three emerging market economies

On Collusion and Industry Size

In this paper we investigate the connection between the number of competitors and the sustainability of collusion within the context of a infinitely repeated symmetric Cournot model where only a subset of firms cooperate. We show that, in our model, an increase in the number of cartel firms may increase collusion likelihood by diminishing the negative effects for collusion of the existence of a competitive fringe. Also, we show that an increase in the number of fringe firms makes collusion harder to sustain

Sistema Individual de Pensiones versus sistema colectivo de pensiones en Perú

The following paper analyses the sustainability of the Peruvian “Pay as You Go System” which is provided by the Government. In Peru, the “Pay as you Go System” coexists with Private Pension Funds or “Fully Funded Pension”. Sometimes both systems compete with each other with advantages and disadvantages between them. We found that “Pay as You Go System” cannot be sustainable over a long period of time. In addition, based on a comparative analysis of advantages and disadvantages, we propose some recommendations to make Private Pension Funds (Fully Funded Pension) the best alternative to Pay as You Go System.Este trabajo analiza la sostenibilidad del sistema pensional colectivo implementado por el gobierno peruano. En Perú, este sistema coexiste con el de fondos privados de pensiones o fondo individual. En algunos casos, estos dos sistemas compiten entre sí, con sus ventajas y desventajas entre ambos sistemas. Según nuestros hallazgos, el sistema pensional de reparto colectivo de pensiones no es sostenible en un largo plazo. Asimismo, sobre la base de un análisis comparativo de las ventajas y desventajas entre ambos sistemas, se formulan algunas recomendaciones para que los fondos privados de pensión (Sistema Individual) se conviertan en la mejor alternativa al sistema pen­sional colectivo

A model of medium term exchange rate forecast in an open economy: the case of the mexican peso

Keynes (1930) and Samuelson (1965) proposals open the possibility of matching predictability and efficiency, as evidenced by the seminal study by Fisher (1930). Recent findings suggest that the foreign exchange market gradually incorporates relevant information allowing the formation of prices in a rational manner but not randomly. Models of exchange rate by term based on asset valuation suggest that the inclusion of risk in the spot rate increases the degree of predictability. The results show that after incorporating an accurate measure of risk, predictability of medium term foreign exchange rate increases.Las propuestas de Keynes (1930) y Samuelson (1965) abren la posibilidad de compatibilizar eficiencia con predictibilidad según se deduce del estudio seminal de Fisher (1930). Recientes hallazgos sugieren que el mercado de divisas incorpora gradualmente la información relevante favoreciendo la conformación de precios de manera racional y no aleatoria. Los modelos del tipo de cambio a plazo basados en la valuación de activos sugieren que la inclusión del riesgo al tipo de cambio spot aumenta el grado de predictibilidad. Los resultados muestran que tras incorporar una medida precisa de riesgo se aumenta sustancialmente la predictibilidad del tipo de cambio en el mediano plazo

Characteristics and dynamics of crescentic bar events at Castelldefels beach

Crescentic sand bars have been studied intensively in the last decades, resulting in good knowledge of some of their characteristics, but the processes behind their formation and destruction are not yet clear. This study aims to increase our understanding of the dynamics of crescentic bars at an open, dissipative Mediterranean beach (Castelldefels, 20 km southwest of Barcelona). Their dynamics have been analysed using a 4.25-year dataset of video images. The crescentic bar events have been identified using visual analysis, including the formation and destruction moments. The results show that crescentic bars hardly occurred when the sandbar was located close to the beach, whilst they developed often when the sandbar was further offshore. Wave conditions during crescentic bar formation were low- to intermediate-energy waves with both oblique and shore-normal angles of incidence. Sandbar straightening was preferably observed for oblique waves (of both intermediate and high energy). The alongshore wavelength and cross- shore amplitude of the crescentic bars have been also quantified, giving some 245 m and 10 m on average, respectively.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Generalized Market Uncertainty Measurement in European Stock Markets in Real Time

We estimate generalized market uncertainty indicators for the stock markets of eight European countries greatly affected by the recent Covid-19 crisis and the economic measures implemented for its containment and mitigation. Our statistics emphasize the difference between risk and uncertainty, in the aggregate, and provide readily and easily interpretable estimates, in real time, which are relevant for market participants and regulators. We show that generalized uncertainty in Europe was, indeed, at historically high levels in the wake of the recent public health crisis before the large interventions by the European Central Bank, the Fed, and the Bank of England, but also that, for some markets, recently recorded uncertainty levels were still lower than those recorded during the Global Financial Crisis, which puts things into perspective. We also show that uncertainty shocks are extremely persistent, but such persistence varies greatly across countries. The period needed for the markets to absorb half of the shock lies between less than a year and two and a half years

Morphological changes, beach inundation and overwash caused by an extreme storm on a low-lying embayed beach bounded by a dune system (NW Mediterranean)

The geomorphological evolution of a low-lying, micro-tidal sandy beach in the western Mediterranean, Pals beach, was characterized using airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data. Data were collected in prior to and six months after the impact of an extreme storm with a return period of approx. 50 years, with the aim of characterizing the beach's response to the storm. The use of repeated high-resolution topographic data to quantify beach geomorphic changes has allowed assessment of the accuracy of different proxies for estimating beach volume changes. Results revealed that changes in the shoreline position cannot accurately reproduce beach volume changes on low-lying beaches where overwash processes are significant. Observations also suggested that volume estimations from beach profiles do not accurately represent subaerial volume changes at large profile distances on beaches with significant alongshore geomorphological variability. Accordingly, the segmentation of the beach into regularly spaced bins is proposed to assess alongshore variations in the beach volume with the accuracy of the topographic data. The morphological evolution of Pals beach during the study period showed a net shoreline retreat (- 4 m) and a significant sediment gain on the subaerial beach (+ 7.5 m3/m). The net gain of sediment is mostly due to the impact of the extreme storm, driving significant overwash processes that transport sediment landwards, increasing volume on the backshore and dunes. The increase of volume on the foreshore and the presence of cuspate morphologies along the shoreline also evidence post-storm beach recovery. Observed morphological changes exhibit a high variability along the beach related to variations in beach morphology. Changes in the morphology and migration of megacusps result in a high variability in the shoreline position and foreshore volume changes. On the other hand, larger morphological changes on the backshore and larger inundation distances occur when the beach and the dunes are lower, favouring the dominance of overwash. The observed storm-induced morphological changes differ from predicted beach storm impacts because of spatial and temporal variations in the beach morphology, suggesting that detailed morphological parameters and indicators used for predicting beach vulnerability to storms should be regularly updated in order to represent the pre-storm beach conditions. Finally, observed morphological changes in Pals Bay evidenced a different behaviour between natural and urban areas, with better post-storm beach recovery on natural areas where the beach is not artificially narrowed.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Contrastación de un modelo de ciberconsumo

El consumo de productos y servicios en Internet se ha estudiado a partir de dos hipótesis, según las cuales los usuarios compran productos o contratan servicios en la medida en que la información se percibe como útil o riesgosa. Por consiguiente, la utilidad percibida supone que los protocolos de in - formación digitales tienen mayores beneficios que costos, o bien, en comparación con otros modos de comercio, Internet resulta más compatible con estilos de vida implicados en dispositivos electrónicos. Sin embargo, la percepción de riesgo es un factor que no solo inhibe las transferencias electrónicas, sino que además hace más selectiva la búsqueda y compra de bienes de consumo o la contratación de servi - cios. Precisamente, el objetivo del presente trabajo fue establecer las dimensiones de la selectividad en torno al consumo electrónico. Para tal fin, se realizó una selección no probabilística de 188 internautas a los que se aplicó un cuestionario de ciberconsumo, el cual obtuvo una consistencia interna adecuada. A partir de un modelo estructural, se estimó la validez reflectiva de cuatro indicadores del consumo en Internet. Los resultados se discuten a partir del estado actual del conocimiento